Much has been written about former President Donald Trump’s offensive rants about the Jewish community, the state of Israel and his dire warning about the upcoming November elections.
Trump has repeatedly declared that Israel’s very survival would be at risk if Vice President Kamala Harris is elected president. And he berates Jews who don’t support him as unappreciative and self-hating. While it is often difficult to follow the linkage between Trump’s thinking and his spoken word, the “Israel-Jews-Voting” connection appears to be the following:
Trump views himself as the most pro-Israel president in U.S. history. Trump believes that most U.S. Jews hold a dual allegiance to the United States and Israel. Trump thinks that U.S. support for Israel is the single most important issue on which U.S. Jews base their presidential vote. He therefore thinks that most Jews should support his candidacy and is mystified by low reports of support within the Jewish community.
Trump claims he is supported by 40% of U.S. Jews. Most estimates put the number closer to the mid-20s. But that doesn’t stop Trump from pursuing his own narrative. In a speech to the Israeli American Council on Sept. 19, Trump declared: “If I don’t win this election … the Jewish people would really have a lot to do with that if it happens, because at 40% that means 60% of the people are voting for the enemy.”
Jewish organizations, leaders and commentators reacted negatively to Trump’s rant. Some worried that Trump’s preemptive blaming of Jews at a time of an alarming rise in antisemitism crossed a dangerous line and wondered whether he was threatening U.S. Jews with MAGA rage if he loses the election. Others wondered where he got his asserted 40% Jewish support number.
A recent report by Nishma Research on the political views among the two main sectors of American Orthodox Jewry may have part of the answer.
The Nishma presidential preference survey of close to 1,300 Orthodox Jews was conducted between Aug. 28 and Sept. 18, 2024, and involved 678 respondents who self-identified as Haredi and 595 respondents who self-identified as Modern/Centrist Orthodox. Nishma found that Modern Orthodox Jews support Harris (55%) over Trump (45%), while Haredi Jews overwhelmingly support Trump (93%) over Harris (7%). That gives Trump roughly 77% support in the survey.
According to the report, support for Trump stems from his support of Israel, his approaches to the economy and immigration and respondent dislike and distrust of Harris, the Democratic Party and liberal ideals. Support for Harris stemmed from strong dislike of Trump, the perception that he is a danger to democracy and support for Harris’ views, knowledge and demeanor.
None of the Nishma results directly challenge the recent Jewish Democratic Council of America poll of 800 self-identified Jewish voters that showed Harris leading Trump among all Jewish voters by a wide margin of 72-25%. But it may help explain a recent Teach Coalition poll in Pennsylvania of some 400 Jewish voters that found Harris with only an 11-point margin over Trump.
While we see a wide political divide between religious streams within the Jewish community, we are heartened by the entire community’s focus on civility and mutual respect even when addressing profound political differences. That is a model we wish all political candidates would strive to emulate.
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